A year ago at this time, Murphy was coming off of a rookie season where he hit .313 and posted an .871 OPS. He was working counts, hitting doubles and generally making Mets fans giddy. He played all 32 of his games in 2008 in left field. At the time, Mets fans weren't sure he could make it as an outfielder, but they knew they liked the player.
Fast forward a few months and a lot changed: Murphy is now playing first base for an injured Carlos Delgado and struggling with the bat. Pitchers have adjusted to his opposite field approach and they are now busting him in regularly; he is failing to adjust. He finishes the season on a strong note after making an adjustment, but his .741 OPS leaves a bit to be desired for a first baseman on a large market team.
Position aside, Murphy's sophomore season wasn't all that bad. He hit 12 homeruns in the spacious Citi Field (probably 15-17 HR anywhere else) and almost 40 doubles, showing that he has some life in his bat. Thing is, in an attempt to prove to the Mets and fans that he can be a first baseman, he went away from his bread and butter. He started swinging for the fences, and taking fewer pitches. His walk rate dropped (along with his OBP) and much to his chagrin, so does did his slugging percentage. He was trying to be a 30 HR guy, mainly because that's what the Mets needed badly. He's not a 30 HR guy and needs to return to what made him a prospect in the first place: Gap to gap hitting and a good eye.
Daniel Murphy was always a third baseman as a prospect (although the fielding percentage there was not fantastic). There is little talk of this because between the mediocre defense and David "The Franchise" Wright winning Gold Glove awards for his play there, why bother? I mean, that's as bad as being a SS prospect in the Yankee system.
As a 3B prospect, Murphy's numbers aren't all that bad (especially when you consider the park he plays in and the lack of offensive support he had in 2009). His .741 OPS would have put him ahead of Peralta, Feliz, Inge, Kouzmanoff, LaRoche, Teahen, and Headley among regular MLB 3B. If you imagine that he can post an .800 OPS, that would put him in the bottom of the upper tier of MLB 3B, along with guys like Scott Rolen, Casey Blake, Micheal Young, Miguel Tejada and others. He doesn't project to be an All-Star 3B, but with a good OBP and XBH power, he could pass as one for a number of teams.
Now, imagine his offensive potential as a second baseman. Last year, only 9 major leaguers with enough ABs to qualify for the batting title posted an .800 OPS, and most of them were barely over .800. Of those who did post solid OPS, many of them are questionable defensively: Robinson Cano, Dan Uggla, Aaron Hill (-2.5 UZR). Many of the better fielding second baseman posted OPS in the range of .657 (Eckstein) to .758 (Adam Kennedy).
So, if you believe in Sabermetrics at all, and the study of WAR and UZR, then even if Daniel Murphy is almost as bad as Dan Uggla at 2B, he can still be an effective and productive player there. In fact, more productive than Luis Castillo in my opinion, with nothing but upside. If Murphy can actually do a halfway decent job over there, then all the more value, especially at his current pay rate.
With Jose Reyes at SS, David Wright at 3B and Ike Davis at 1B, can the Mets get away with one offensive-minded 2B that doesn't have superior range? I think they could, and I think what he would do to make the lineup stronger would be worth the risk.
Now is the time to find out. When he comes off the DL, roll him out there at Buffalo. See how he does. Give him time to work at the position. What do you have to lose?
In a worst case scenario, you can eventually give up on the idea of him as an every day 2B and work him as a utility guy (1B, 3B, 2B, OF). He becomes the left-handed version of Fernando Tatis, and probably takes Catalanotto's place on the roster. Tatis and Murphy would give you two very versatile utility guys off the bench, and one of the better benches in the league.
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