Thursday, December 31, 2009

Welcome Aboard, Jason Bay

Let's welcome Jason Bay to the 2010 New York Mets. Does he realize what he has gotten himself into? The guy was born in Trail, Canada, which is north of Toronto and just West of Ottawa. You can see where Trail is for yourself here.

The good news is, I don't think this guy is going to be scared off by a little wind and snow. More good news: I don't think the large city is going to frighten him either, considering he grew up a few hours outside of Ottawa.

From what I have read, Bay is a fairly stoic guy that probably will not be shaken by the NY Media hounds. It wont hurt if Jose Reyes, David Wright and Carlos Beltran are all healthy and producing either, since he'd be just one of 4 difference makers in the lineup everyday. If we can throw Francoeur in that mix as well, even better still.

We are all familiar with Bay's power numbers and his propensity to pull (large thanks to the Mets campaign to point out that they already know exactly where all of his 2010 will land). We are warned that his defense may be suspect and that his shoulders have problems with commitment. But what many fans do not realize is how good Jason is at getting on base.

Bay's isolated plate discipline numbers are impressive. Because his batting average has been mediocre, his OBP has been decent, but not great. The truth is, much like Carlos Delgado, the guy can walk. With Boston, his OBP was .380, and he almost walked 100 times in 2009.

So, with Bay, you are getting a patient, powerful hitter. You are getting a right-handed version of the Carlos Delgado that played for the Marlins and Mets before his injury in 2009. The kind of guy who can smack 38 HR in a park like Shea, post a .375 OBP and hit 30+ doubles. A true, old-school RBI guy that will not chase too many bad pitches to get himself out (unlike Jeff Francoeur).

When you think of Delgado -- if you are anything like me -- you get frustrated with how easily he was nullified late in games by good left-handed relievers. Delgado's OBP in 2008 (when he played a whole season and hit 38 homeruns) against lefties was a putrid .299. He also struck out 25% of the time he faced a lefty.

Bay, to the contrary, is more of a Steady Eddie type guy in regards to splits. He posted a .370 OBP last year against RHP, and a .400 OBP against lefties. He also hit 24 of his bombs off of the right-handers ... so Bay isn't going to be neutralized by a decent RHP. He's still a threat.

For those of you who wanted Matt Holliday ... it's worth pointing out that statistically, he's very similar to David Wright. A righty who can hit .300 and hit between 20 and 30 HR (presuming David hasn't lost the ability to hit HR for good). Obviously it's nice to have as many of those hitters as possible, but I feel the Mets were looking for some sting in the middle of that order, the kind of fear that Delgado invoked in opposing pitchers back when we first got him. If Holliday ends up being a 22 HR guy ... I don't think he would have had the same impact.

Now why would Bay sign with the Mets? A team that was the laughing stock of MLB in 2009, a team rank with organizational strife and a media of story-starved coyotes? Money, of course. Old Omar tried to pretend that we got Jason in a 4 year deal ... but the story about the 5th year is slowly leaking out. It sounds like unless Bay gets hit by a bus, he's going to see that $18 million dollar option kick in for the 2014 season. Bay had $80 million reasons to become a part of the Mets.

So, let's give a warm welcome to our new Canadian Bambino and wish him the best, because quite frankly, we know that he is going to need it.