Mets Ticket Plans: Never a Great Fit

As your middle-class Mets fan, I continue to be frustrated by Mets ticket plan options. Last year I was a 15-game plan holder. The year before, it was a six pack. Before that, I had tried Saturday and Sunday plans (which to this point were still my favorite).

As much as I would love to be a full season ticket holder, I can't even justify the time (let along the price). Coming from Connecticut, it takes me anywhere from 1-2 hours to get to the game and I simply cannot miss that much time from my work or personal life to make 20 games (let alone a full season). The perfect number for me is somewhere between 5 and 10 games, maybe 12 in a really excellent season.

So the Mets offer a six-pack. Sounds great right? Not really, you can only buy these 6-packs for terrible seats. When I go to a game, since it's such a trip to get there, I want to sit in decent seats. I don't need to be down on the playing field slapping five with the players, but I don't really enjoy sitting in the top half of the outfield promenade either.

How about the 15-game plans? Well, they offer slightly better seats, but still nothing great. My 15 game plan last year had me 3 rows from the back of the stadium, which was just too far out for my tastes. Put it this way, if I am enjoying the view more on my HD television at home, it's not worth the trip. I'll sit up there for a playoff game, but not a game against the Padres in August. The novelty of the new stadium wore off for me about a month in.

I just got an e-mail today where the Mets are now offering the 15-game plans for better seating in the Caesar's club. The seats are better, although still in the outfield corners, but at $1500 per seat I just cannot justify the cost. $100 per seat, per game, is actually OK with me, but only if the seats are solid and at that rate I am more like a six-pack than a 15-pack if you know what I mean.

So in a sense, although I am paid quite well for this area of the country, the Mets have once again priced me out of their plans, either through poor seating choices or through gross amounts (pun intended). They are forcing me to buy my tickets individually ... and using Stubhub, I can probably get better seats at the same or less money anyway.

So what is my motivation? Playoff tickets? That's a sham as well. From what I remember, when you have a partial plan, you get a ticket for one game, and they literally put you in the last row of the stadium in a corner somewhere.

Let's do the math out, for fun.

15 game plan scenario:

• $1500 x 2 (who buys one ticket?) for $3000
• You get 15 games, maybe half of which you wanted, the other half are filler
• Your seats are fair, but not good
• You get the right to BUY one playoff game ticket, which let's say is another $300
• Maybe you sell a few games of tickets for about $300, and give a few games away free
• You are locked in, in advance, with no real discount

Total: $3,300, you end up going to about 8 games or so, have to work to sell the rest

Individual plan:

• Let's say we buy tickets to 8 games, at $125 per ticket, for $2,000.
• We get good seats
• We get tickets to 8 games we want to see, no filler games
• You buy playoff tickets on Stubhub, and you pay $400 a piece for them. You get fair seats
• Flexibility ... if I lose my job, I can stop buying tickets or opt out of the playoff ticket

Total: $2,800

So, for the better seats, the flexibility, being able to choose your specific dates and games, better playoff seats, less money out of pocket in advance, and fewer headaches, why would I renew again?

The Mets Plan

Since midway through the 2009 season, I have been hearing more and more people refer to the Mets and their lack of "a plan". I want to attempt to debunk what I feel is a myth; I do feel the Mets have a plan, whether or not it looks that way at times.

Do the Mets need to have a specific plan?

One can argue that large market teams don't really need to have an overall plan or strategy. What works in baseball is not that secretive. You want players in their primes, and you want to lock them into contracts before they get to their peaks so that you have players that are worth more than they make. You want to have a strong and well stocked farm system, and you want players who can hit, hit for power, play defense well, and run well. You also want plenty of quality starting pitching and bullpen arms. You want pitchers who have healthy arms, low ERA's, and low walk totals with higher strikeout rates. Sprinkle in some veteran leadership here or there to help the youngsters along, and there you have it - your plan in a nutshell.

The thing is, almost all teams have this same plan.

If you are a small market team, or a team in financial trouble, you need a more specific plan. Perhaps you trade off talent earlier because you need to keep your budget down. If you have a unique home field situation, you may want to cater to it. If you are the Yankees, you want players who can perform under pressure and handle the media. If you are the Rockies, you want ground ball pitchers, and so on and so forth.

The Mets do have one of the larger ballparks, but not so much so that they need to bring in special players to deal with it. Jason Bay is a perfect example, showing you that the Mets do not plan to only go with outfielders that have premium range.

Here are my primary reasons why I feel that the Mets do not appear to have a plan (to some):

• The team performed poorly in 2009. This simply reduces fan optimism. Had the Mets won the division last year with the exact same team (with no one getting injured as they did), the fans would all be voting that the team had a plan, and a good one. The media would be writing about how well the Mets were positioned for the future, instead of how they lack a plan.
• The team is lacking Major League ready prospects. Sure, we have a bunch of kids that look ready to help in the 2011-2013 years, but how many are ready right now? If the Mets had a few prospects ready to fill in at key positions (specifically pitching, 2B and 1B), fans would perceive the Mets to have a better "plan" in place. Of course, the lack of prospects in these positions is a sign of bad drafting, not a sign of no plan. The plan was to draft well, it didn't happen.
• The free agent market was weak, lacking the kind of players the Mets wanted to acquire (healthy, under 32, reasonably priced and well-rounded). Bay and Holliday were the closest thing to the mark that was out there. Holliday fit the bill, but Bay was a better deal financially with less risk. The Mets got him. Kudos. Outside of that, you had John Lackey, who the Mets liked, but had concerns about his health long term and the length of contract.
• Public relations is a mess. Let's face it, PR hasn't exactly gone well for the Mets recently. In fact, I don't really remember when it has gone well for them. They have always been the beloved loser franchise, the team in the shadow of the Yankees, and a team that is a bullseye for the media. On top of that, we hear all sorts of craziness about who is actually in charge. My guess is that Omar and Jeff are running the show in some capacity, and the two work closely enough that they can make a decision when they need to.
• The Mets say one thing, and do another. For whatever reason, the Mets have really preached pitching, speed and defense for the last two seasons in regards to Citi Field and who they want to acquire. Their transactions do not echo this sentiment. This is all part of the point above (PR problems). My guess is that we have a combination of misdiagnosed marketing (the team feels that is what fans want to hear) and also a lack of quality pitching, speed and defense on the free agent market. Sure, Lackey was out there, but what if Lackey had zero desire to go to the Mets to begin with? The Mets need to zip the lip (as Craig Carton would say) on what they are looking for, and instead go back to what Omar used to say: We're trying to acquire the best talent we can. They you can justify anything, from a slugger like Bay to a defensive whiz.

So, without further ado ... I present to you the Top Secret plan of the New York Mets:

• Sell tickets, merchandise, concessions and ads ... in other words, make profit. This is priority #1, and everything else below rolls up to this.
• Put a competitive team on the field every season. Obviously 2009 was a disaster for that part of the plan, driven almost exclusively by a massive number of injuries.
• Acquire plus talent, at the right price. We hear about pitching, defense and speed, but the true Mets plan is to acquire premium talent, at a good price. Jason Bay is known for neither his defense nor his speed, but he is a talent, and the Mets nabbed him. They also traded for ace Johan Santana when they needed to. They have time and time again acquired top talent every year: Pedro, Beltran, Delgado, Wagner, K-Rod, Santana, and now Bay. That is the pattern.
• Retain prospects. Right now, the Mets are being more conservative with their farm system in an attempt to re-stock it at the higher levels. We have seen plenty of evidence of this.
• Ensure employees in the organization (from top to bottom) can handle the NY media professionally. We have seen examples of this as well, with a more recent one being the departure of Lastings Milledge. Part of the Mets marketing plan has always been "family friendly", and this is part of that. They want pros, and maybe even role models. This is also why Minaya is suddenly doing fewer pressers.
• Have a strong international presence, leveraging large market team resources and cultural diversity to the team's advantage, giving the team an unfair advantage in the international market. We have also seen a lot of evidence of this.
• Do not pay over slot value in the Amateur draft. Like it or not, this is clearly a part of the Mets "plan".
• AAA depth. This is emphasized now following 2009 - it obviously wasn't a large part of the plan last year. This is why the Mets now have 4 catching options (Coste, Santos, Blanco and Thole), and about 80 guys who can play first base. They do lack middle infield options, however - another reason they overpaid Alex Cora.
• Veteran leadership. Again, like it or not, the Mets plan entails signing guys who are leaders in the clubhouse. Cora is a perfect example of that. He really brings little to the table statistically, but the Mets paid him handsomely for everything else he brings to the table.

So yes, I do believe they have a very intricate plan, and I think the evidence is there and has been there. I know it makes a sexy story to claim they don't have a plan, but I feel that a failure to execute well should not be confused with lacking a plan.

Strong up the Middle?

Jerry Manuel made an excellent point yesterday about the value of interior defense, and most people will tell you that defense "up the middle" is more crucial than the exterior positions. "Up the Middle" includes 4 positions: Catcher, SS, 2B and CF.

Amazingly, we have a void in almost all of those positions. Carlos Beltran is a great CF, but will miss quite some time to start the year. Is Gary Matthews Jr. a strong defensive CF? Not even close. How about Angel Pagan? Probably not.

Luis Castillo, who is an experienced 2B, is no longer a good one. His range is sorely lacking and he does nothing exceptionally well defensively. His wheels have always been his only plus and with those gone so is his game. His UZR/150 has been in decline for years now, and he posted a career worst -12.0 last year.

At catcher, we have Henry Blanco, who has soft hands and a strong arm, but he doesn't strike me as an incredibly mobile catcher. He's also going to be 38 this year and that wont help him defensively. Visions of Jake Taylor (from the movie Major League) icing his knees come to mind. I'm picturing that most excellent sequence where Jake Taylor and Lou Brown exchange words about Jake's physical condition, but with Blanco and Manuel taking their place:

Jerry Manuel: Hey, Henry. Hows the knees holding up?

Henry Blanco: Great! Never been better.

Jerry Manuel: Mobility's good? No problem getting off the throw to second?

Henry Blanco: No problemo.

Jerry Manuel: I need a catcher, Henry. Someone who can lead this team on the field. But I want the absolute truth, here, are you one-hundred percent?

Henry Blanco: Yeah, would I bullshit you about something like that?

Jerry Manuel: You better ... if you wanna make this team.

Omir Santos has some limitations defensively as well, ranging from a mediocre (at best) arm to poor pitch selection management (according to the Mets front office). Our other options are Chris Coste (a utility player that catches) and Josh Thole (a position player that just recently converted to catcher). I'm not stricken with confidence in out catching defense, although I do feel we have enough options to avoid defensive embarrassment at the position.

And then there is Jose Reyes. People love to praise Jose as a talented shortstop, but Reyes is no where near as good defensively as most fans think ... and when you factor in his amazing speed and very strong arm, he's actually a disappointment defensively because despite being quicker, faster and stronger than most shortstops, his actual performance is average.

His one plus year defensively as a shortstop was in 2007, when he had a 7.5 UZR. In pretty much all of the other seasons, he has been around average, and last year he was actually bad, a -1.9 UZR (which would have been on pace for a -9.4 UZR had he played an entire season that way). I'll assume that was a sample size issue, but no matter how you shake it, unless he reverts to his 2007 form, he's nothing special with the glove.

To give you an idea of what better fielding shortstops give you as far as UZR, look at the leaders. Jack Wilson had an UZR/150 of 20.4. Adam Everett was a 13.6. Cesar Izturis was a 14.1. Even Derek Jeter, who had been a negative UZR for almost all of his career, had a breakout season last year and posted a solid 8.4 ... which is better than any year Jose Reyes has had in the field. Jose generally comes in around the top of the bottom 3rd of regulars defensively.

So it's safe to say that between Jose's averageness, no real strong (and young) defensive catcher, a well below average 2B and weak defense in CF (at least untul Beltran returns), that this team is pretty weak "up the middle".

To make matters worse (and add fuel to the fire) consider that we have Daniel Murphy playing first base (out of position, converted, and young) and Jason Bay - an outfielder known for his bat not his glove/range - in left field. Franceour is a fair right fielder, and David Wright had a horrible year defensively last year (-13.2 UZR/150) despite a few solid years before that.

Conclusion: It's safe to say that this team as currently constructed, supposedly built around pitching and defense, is somewhere between bad and average defensively.

2010: John Maine's Defining Year

Nothing like being overly dramatic right? Well, let's call this upcoming season, the most important season of John Maine's entire career.

Maine is coming into the season at age 28, but he will turn 29 in May. Maine is one of those guys you envision being a "youngster", but in truth there are many guys his age who have already put in 5+ quality seasons as a regular starter.

When you think of John Maine, you immediately think of durability issues. Maine has had only one season thus far with 30 or more starts, and one other season with 25 starts. The rest of his career he's been on the mend and on the shelf.

The Breakdown:

Maine has been noticeably solid whenever healthy. He always has a winning record and he always has a decent WHIP (typically in the 1.25 range). His strikeout rates have fluctuated a bit, but it's hard to tell with Maine because of the sample size each year. Overall, he strikes out 7.5 batters per 9, but the more starts he has had in a season, the higher his rate (as high as 8.5 per 9 a few years ago when he started 32 games.

Trends:

Maine's has been allowing fewer homeruns per 9 every year for his entire career. 2.5, 1.8, 1.5, 1.1, 1.0 and 0.9 last year. He's been improving as a "pitcher". The same had been true for his walk rates as well, until the last couple of years where it jumped up a hair. I think this might largely be the result of lack of regular games, coming off of injury and shaking off the rust.

Projections:

Bill James predicts that Maine is going to have a solid year, with a 3.86 ERA and 27 starts, striking out about 7.4 per 9 IP.

CHONE projections are a bit harsher. They predict closer to 22 starts, and a mediocre 4.46 ERA. The biggest difference between James and CHONE is that CHONE projects Maine to be more easily hit, yielding about 20 more hits and striking out 20+ fewer batters.

My Prediction:

This is tough, simply because no one really knows what John Maine's arm feel like. Even if it feels fine when the season starts, it could fatigue in June at which point we are looking at a different pitcher.

I am going to pick and choose from each side of the projections above. I think that Maine understand the value in staying healthy. A healthy mediocre pitcher can make a boatload of money these days, where the talented but oft injured guys struggle to get short-term incentive-laden deals. See Ben Sheets and Joel Pineiro for a great example. Sheets is twice the pitcher that Pineiro is, but Sheets is groping for a one year deal at the same kind of money that Pineiro is hoping to get for 3.

The net result is that Maine is going to look to continue improving as a pitcher, at the expense of his strikeout rate (and velocity). He'll pitch more to contact (especially in Citi Field) and secretly find some contentment in merely taking the hill every 5 days for a change.

Line: 12-8, 4.50 ERA, 165 IP, 28 GS, 7.0 K/9, 4.2 BB/9, .275 BAA

A Decade of Terrible Drafting

The more I read about this year's crop of pitchers available in free agency or through trade, the more it frustrates me to think about how we haven't gotten anything along the lines of starting pitching from our farm system in over a decade (or more).

The Mets over the years have tended to draft pitching more heavily than many other teams from what I remember, and what do we have to show for it? Mike Pelfrey and his 5+ ERA and super low strikeout rates?

Don't get me wrong, it's not that Pelfrey is garbage, I am rooting for the guy, but as far as starters go that we have drafted, he is the best we have to show for the last 10-12 years of drafting pitchers? Since our apperance in the 2000 World Series, let's take a look at some of the names that have come out of our system and slotted into the rotation:

• Dicky Gonzalez (2001) - 20 games in his MLB career
• Grant Roberts (2001) - never even made a start
• Tyler Walker (2002) - 1 start in his entire career
• Jae Seo (2003) - Out of MLB by 2007, had a decent year or two.
• Aaron Heilman (2003) - Never really given much of a chance to start by Mets
• Jeremy Griffiths (2003) - Appeared in 10 games in his MLB career
• Jason Roach (2003) - Started 2 games and was out of baseball that year
• Tyler Yates (2004) - 7 awful starts for the Mets, then massive injury.
• Alay Soler (2006) - 8 sub-par starts for the Mets, then out of baseball entirely.
• Brian Bannister (2006) - First decent pitcher on the list, we traded him away immediately.
• Mike Pelfrey (2006) - After 3 seasons, still trying to be better than league average
• Phil Humber (2006) - Trying to make a team this year, has been awful
• Carlos Muniz (2007) - Where is he now?
• John Neise (2008) - Still some hope, but not a major prospect

I mean, the list goes on in the bullpen as well, where we have been equally as bad. With the exception of Heath Bell (who we also traded away immediately), we haven't even produced a reliable reliever outside of our LOOGY, Pedro Feliciano. The rest is a long list of guys like Orber Moreno, Pat Strange and Eddie Kunz.

I challenge you to find any franchise that has been as bad as the Mets over the last 10+ years in producing a pitcher from their draft.

If you remove David Wright and Jose Reyes from the equation, our position players suffer from the same fate. At this point, 3 productive (OPS+ or ERA+ over 110) players in a decade has to be more attributed to the blind squirrel finding a nut theory than anything else. I mean, Pedro Feliciano was drafted by the Dodgers, not the Mets, and he was picked in the 31st round.

If nothing else, our scouting and drafting experts need to be eradicated from the system - especially on the pitching side. Stop spending millions on aging players like Luis Castillo and Bengie Molina, and use some of that big market money to lure in some real talent evaluators and draft experts. That's what a smart organization would do.

The reason we are in such bad shape each year when it comes to finding pitchers is because we never add any effective ones to the rotation from our own farm system.

Projected 2010 OPS+ (with Bay)

Using some "fuzzy logic", I have come up with what I feel to be projected OPS+ numbers for the 2010 Mets. I've thrown Bengie Molina in as the catcher, as I have a pretty strong hunch that is going to go down in some fashion soon.

Jason Bay: 134
David Wright: 130
Carlos Beltran: 130
Jose Reyes: 115
Daniel Murphy: 105
Luis Castillo: 95 (Orlando Hudson: 105)
Jeff Francoeur: 95
Bengie Molina: 90

For Wright, I reverted to a number closer to when he was hitting 25 homeruns (rather than 33). Last year, despite hitting only 10 homeruns, Wright still produced a 123 OPS+ on the strength of his OBP.

Beltran is a real wild card and his OPS+ can swing from year to year, so I went with a simple mean. Reyes I went slightly optimistic based on his hunger to get back out there and produce. Reyes seems to live between 100 and 120, and I'll take 115.

I'm putting Murphy at 105 next year, 10 points better than his 2009 campaign, but significantly below his 129 rookie season. Hopefully he surprises us and beats the 105 handily.

Franceour, as much as I root for the guy, lacks the track record to score higher than a 95, which puts him in the .280 average, with 18 HR realm (and as usual, a poor OBP).

Castillo and Molina are offsetting monsters. Neither player is league average in OPS, simply because they are polar opposite one-sided performers. As I like to jest, Luis Molina is a dominant player who can get on base 40% of the time and hits 20 HR, but Bengie Castillo is a real stinker, who basically hits like a pitcher.

The list above shows us what we already know ... the Mets have a very solid top half to their order, followed by a fairly weak bottom half of guys who are "specialized". By specialized I mean that Francoeur and Molina are decent options if they get up with people on base, but not when the bases are empty. The opposite is true for Castillo.

The total OPS+ for the starters is 894. Orlando Hudson, should the Mets find a way to acquire him, puts us at 105 OPS+ at the 2B slot, which would put us just over 900. Simple math shows that the average OPS+ for the starters is around 112.

Looking at the 2009 Phillies, for the sake of comparison, they were several points higher on average when you look at the primary 8, and that includes two very low OPS+ numbers (81 for Pedro Feliz, who is no longer around, and 86 for Jimmy Rollins, who is probably going to improve).

In conclusion, even with the additions of Bay, Molina and Hudson, we're still a significant notch below the Phillies offensively, although the gap is not too wide. If Murphy and Francoeur have breakout seasons, we're probably an even match.

Pitching, is another story ...

Welcome Aboard, Jason Bay

Let's welcome Jason Bay to the 2010 New York Mets. Does he realize what he has gotten himself into? The guy was born in Trail, Canada, which is north of Toronto and just West of Ottawa. You can see where Trail is for yourself here.

The good news is, I don't think this guy is going to be scared off by a little wind and snow. More good news: I don't think the large city is going to frighten him either, considering he grew up a few hours outside of Ottawa.

From what I have read, Bay is a fairly stoic guy that probably will not be shaken by the NY Media hounds. It wont hurt if Jose Reyes, David Wright and Carlos Beltran are all healthy and producing either, since he'd be just one of 4 difference makers in the lineup everyday. If we can throw Francoeur in that mix as well, even better still.

We are all familiar with Bay's power numbers and his propensity to pull (large thanks to the Mets campaign to point out that they already know exactly where all of his 2010 will land). We are warned that his defense may be suspect and that his shoulders have problems with commitment. But what many fans do not realize is how good Jason is at getting on base.

Bay's isolated plate discipline numbers are impressive. Because his batting average has been mediocre, his OBP has been decent, but not great. The truth is, much like Carlos Delgado, the guy can walk. With Boston, his OBP was .380, and he almost walked 100 times in 2009.

So, with Bay, you are getting a patient, powerful hitter. You are getting a right-handed version of the Carlos Delgado that played for the Marlins and Mets before his injury in 2009. The kind of guy who can smack 38 HR in a park like Shea, post a .375 OBP and hit 30+ doubles. A true, old-school RBI guy that will not chase too many bad pitches to get himself out (unlike Jeff Francoeur).

When you think of Delgado -- if you are anything like me -- you get frustrated with how easily he was nullified late in games by good left-handed relievers. Delgado's OBP in 2008 (when he played a whole season and hit 38 homeruns) against lefties was a putrid .299. He also struck out 25% of the time he faced a lefty.

Bay, to the contrary, is more of a Steady Eddie type guy in regards to splits. He posted a .370 OBP last year against RHP, and a .400 OBP against lefties. He also hit 24 of his bombs off of the right-handers ... so Bay isn't going to be neutralized by a decent RHP. He's still a threat.

For those of you who wanted Matt Holliday ... it's worth pointing out that statistically, he's very similar to David Wright. A righty who can hit .300 and hit between 20 and 30 HR (presuming David hasn't lost the ability to hit HR for good). Obviously it's nice to have as many of those hitters as possible, but I feel the Mets were looking for some sting in the middle of that order, the kind of fear that Delgado invoked in opposing pitchers back when we first got him. If Holliday ends up being a 22 HR guy ... I don't think he would have had the same impact.

Now why would Bay sign with the Mets? A team that was the laughing stock of MLB in 2009, a team rank with organizational strife and a media of story-starved coyotes? Money, of course. Old Omar tried to pretend that we got Jason in a 4 year deal ... but the story about the 5th year is slowly leaking out. It sounds like unless Bay gets hit by a bus, he's going to see that $18 million dollar option kick in for the 2014 season. Bay had $80 million reasons to become a part of the Mets.

So, let's give a warm welcome to our new Canadian Bambino and wish him the best, because quite frankly, we know that he is going to need it.